Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Emmen at 65% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Emmen welcome Jong PSV U21 to De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Emmen stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Emmen have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Emmen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jong PSV U21 have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Emmen 1.20 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Emmen's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Emmen hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2025, ended Emmen 1–3 Jong PSV U21 — a Jong PSV U21 win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Emmen and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 55% and Jong PSV U21 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 61% | Jong PSV U21 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 3.05 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.316 / defence 1.015 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.122 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Emmen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.316 — their 3.05 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.351 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Emmen's projected output up. Data: built from Emmen's last 62 games and Jong PSV U21's last 65.
Result probabilities: Emmen 65% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 19%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.54 | Draw 6.02 | Jong PSV U21 5.37. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS Yes probability 78% | Total xG 4.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% — both xG figures (3.05 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Emmen 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 85% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games) averaging 4.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 80% (last 10 home games) | Jong PSV U21 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 65% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% (Under 15%) | BTTS Yes 78% (No 22%) | xG Emmen 3.05 / Jong PSV U21 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.316 / def 1.015 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.122 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Emmen (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.05
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
78%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Emmen 2 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 65% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Emmen and Jong PSV U21 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.32x the league average against Jong PSV U21's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 3.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 62 games and Jong PSV U21's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.9%), 3-2 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
65%
1.54
17%
6.02
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
3 – 2
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.05
Emmen xG
Total xG
4.74
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.54
65%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
5%
21.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
1%
113.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 3.05 expected goals for Emmen and 1.69 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 4.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 62 games, going 25W 10D 27L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.11 PPG from 62 outings (20W 9D 33L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.37 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 12W 7D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.71 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 71%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs Jong PSV U21 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 10D 27L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 9D 33L in their last 62 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Emmen's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Jong PSV U21 have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won Jong PSV U21 3-0 Emmen.
Emmen's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Emmen at 66%, Jong PSV U21 at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Emmen and 69% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Jong PSV U21 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Emmen's games and 66% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Emmen's matches and 69% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Emmen and Jong PSV U21 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Emmen's recent matches and 90% of Jong PSV U21's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Emmen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Emmen 2-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 3.05 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG, a combined 4.74. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.32 / defence 1.01 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.12 / defence 1.35, drawn from 62/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 65% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Jong PSV U21 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.37 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 28
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →