Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dordrecht (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dordrecht face Helmond Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Helmond Sport travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Dordrecht at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Helmond Sport have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Dordrecht hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Helmond Sport and 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Dordrecht 2–1 Helmond Sport — a Dordrecht win.
The head-to-head data gives Dordrecht an edge — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 53% versus Helmond Sport 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | Helmond Sport 64%). Note also that Helmond Sport surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Dordrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Helmond Sport 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.959 / defence 1.047 | Helmond Sport attack 0.674 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.544. Helmond Sport's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 62 games and Helmond Sport's last 62.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 55% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.83 | Draw 3.91 | Helmond Sport 5.06. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 80% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 55% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Dordrecht 1.90 / Helmond Sport 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.959 / def 1.047 | Helmond Sport attack 0.674 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht 3 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 55% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dordrecht and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.96) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 62 games and Helmond Sport's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.91
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.99
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
33.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.09 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 28W 15D 19L from 62 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 28L across 62 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 16W 9D 5L from their last 30 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 6W 6D 18L across their last 30 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.35 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 65%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 28W 15D 19L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 19W 15D 28L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.90 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 4-0 Helmond Sport.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 63%, Helmond Sport 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dordrecht and 63% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Helmond Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Dordrecht's games and 60% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dordrecht's matches and 63% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Dordrecht and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 73% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Helmond Sport 3-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Helmond Sport 1.09 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helmond Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Helmond Sport attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 55% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Helmond Sport 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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