🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours De Graafschap (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face Den Bosch.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Den Bosch make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Monday 26 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

De Graafschap have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Den Bosch (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward De Graafschap. A 0.60 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours De Graafschap, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Den Bosch — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.

The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

De Graafschap — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

Den Bosch — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 67% and Den Bosch 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 64% | Den Bosch 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.34 xG and Den Bosch 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.095 / defence 1.206 | Den Bosch attack 1.002 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.568. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 De Graafschap games / 61 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.08 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 3.12. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.24 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights