🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Jong AZ (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong AZ face Jong Ajax.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Jong AZ host Jong Ajax at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Jong AZ are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

Jong AZ hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Jong Ajax, with 2 draws in between.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Jong Ajax winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong AZ and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 64% versus Jong Ajax 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 68% | Jong Ajax 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.64 xG and Jong Ajax 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.779 / defence 1.199 | Jong Ajax attack 0.872 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.529. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Jong AZ games / 59 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Ajax 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 30% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights