Helmond Sport 0-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Helmond Sport face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Helmond Sport welcome De Graafschap to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 5W 2D 3L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour De Graafschap, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Helmond Sport.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 66% and De Graafschap 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 66% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.75 xG and De Graafschap 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.018 / defence 1.175 | De Graafschap attack 1.108 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.568. Data: 61 Helmond Sport games / 62 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 90% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Helmond Sport 1.75 / De Graafschap 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.018 / def 1.175 | De Graafschap attack 1.108 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
2.04
De Graafschap xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kick off?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Helmond Sport 0 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap part of?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 33% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Helmond Sport and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
Record (8 meetings): Helmond Sport 2W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 6W.
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 1.02x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
33%
3.05
23%
4.38
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.79
2.04
De Graafschap xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
13%
7.69
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
4%
23.43
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 2.04 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 19W 14D 28L from 61 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 29W 13D 19L across 61 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 13W 8D 10L from 31 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.82 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 19W 14D 28L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 29W 13D 19L in their last 61 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or De Graafschap away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.52 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 71%, De Graafschap at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Helmond Sport and 61% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Helmond Sport's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Helmond Sport's matches and 61% of De Graafschap's.
Do Helmond Sport and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helmond Sport's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and De Graafschap finished level at 0-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.75 xG and De Graafschap 2.04 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 1.7 short of their projected output. De Graafschap landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 66%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.