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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Helmond Sport face De Graafschap.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Helmond Sport welcome De Graafschap to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Helmond Sport — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 5W 2D 3L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour De Graafschap, who boast 6 victories compared to 3 for Helmond Sport.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with De Graafschap winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 66% and De Graafschap 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 66% | De Graafschap 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.75 xG and De Graafschap 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.018 / defence 1.175 | De Graafschap attack 1.108 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.568. Data: 61 Helmond Sport games / 62 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 90% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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