Waalwijk 2-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host Jong Utrecht at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 4W 2D 4L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.20 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 0, Jong Utrecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Jong Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and Jong Utrecht 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Jong Utrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.56 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.843 / defence 1.130 | Jong Utrecht attack 1.024 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.568. Data: 23 Waalwijk games / 61 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 33% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 44%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Utrecht 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 33% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Waalwijk 1.56 / Jong Utrecht 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.843 / def 1.130 | Jong Utrecht attack 1.024 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Jong Utrecht xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Waalwijk 2 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 33% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
33%
3.03
23%
4.28
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.37
1.81
Jong Utrecht xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.81 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 13D 29L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 12W 15D 30L from 57 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.02 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.18 PPG from 28 outings (9W 6D 13L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 6D 18L from 28 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.18 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 13D 29L in their last 57 games (1.02 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 15D 30L in their last 57 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.18 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
1
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Waalwijk 2-2 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 61%, Jong Utrecht 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Waalwijk and 64% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Waalwijk's games and 57% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Waalwijk's matches and 64% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.56 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.81 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Jong Utrecht attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 33% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 44%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Jong Utrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.02 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.