NAC Breda 1-4 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dordrecht (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 0.80 PPG clear of NAC Breda in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dordrecht in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: NAC Breda 2W, Dordrecht 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 72% and Dordrecht 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 65% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.39 xG and Dordrecht 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.879 / defence 0.983 | Dordrecht attack 1.180 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Data: 71 NAC Breda games / 71 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 33% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 33% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG NAC Breda 1.39 / Dordrecht 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.879 / def 0.983 | Dordrecht attack 1.180 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Dordrecht xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
NAC Breda 1 - 4 Dordrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 33% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both NAC Breda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.88x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.18x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.80
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.94
1.56
Dordrecht xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.56 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 71 games, going 31W 13D 27L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.34 PPG from 71 outings (25W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.34 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 16W 7D 12L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.06 points per game from 35 outings (9W 10D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 31W 13D 27L in their last 71 games (1.49 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 25W 20D 26L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Dordrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.57 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Dordrecht have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when NAC Breda 1-4 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for NAC Breda, 66% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NAC Breda) and 57% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NAC Breda's games and 66% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NAC Breda's matches and 57% of Dordrecht's.
Do NAC Breda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 1-4 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat NAC Breda 1-4 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.39 xG and Dordrecht 1.56 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Dordrecht attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 33% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 65%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.49 PPG, Dordrecht 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.