Den Bosch 0-3 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Dordrecht meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Den Bosch's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dordrecht's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Dordrecht have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Dordrecht arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dordrecht in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Den Bosch 1–5 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Dordrecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 64% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.24 xG and Dordrecht 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.727 / defence 1.335 | Dordrecht attack 1.144 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.306. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dordrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 69 games and Dordrecht's last 69.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 23% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 54%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 4.38 | Draw 4.40 | Dordrecht 1.84. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.24 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 60% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 23% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Den Bosch 1.24 / Dordrecht 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.727 / def 1.335 | Dordrecht attack 1.144 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Dordrecht xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Den Bosch 0 - 3 Dordrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 32) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 23% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.73x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.14x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 69 games and Dordrecht's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
23%
4.38
23%
4.40
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.23
1.99
Dordrecht xG
4.38
23%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
3%
32.17
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.99 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Den Bosch come into this having played 69 games, going 15W 13D 41L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.29 PPG from 69 outings (23W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Den Bosch's home form reads 10W 8D 16L across their last 34 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 34 away games (8W 10D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
Den Bosch (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Den Bosch vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 41L in their last 69 games (0.84 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 23W 20D 26L in their last 69 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Dordrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.12 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won Dordrecht 5-1 Den Bosch on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: Den Bosch 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 62%, Dordrecht 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Den Bosch and 56% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Den Bosch's games and 68% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Den Bosch's matches and 56% of Dordrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 79% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Den Bosch 0-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.24 xG and Dordrecht 1.99 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Dordrecht attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 23% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 54%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 64%, Dordrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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