Willem II 2-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Willem II at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees VVV Venlo travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Willem II carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Willem II, 1 for VVV Venlo and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 63% and VVV Venlo 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 61% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.93 xG and VVV Venlo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.231 / defence 0.903 | VVV Venlo attack 0.772 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.337. Data: 68 Willem II games / 68 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 60% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 17%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | VVV Venlo 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 60% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Willem II 1.93 / VVV Venlo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.231 / def 0.903 | VVV Venlo attack 0.772 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Willem II (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.93
VVV Venlo xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Willem II vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Willem II 2 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Willem II vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs VVV Venlo part of?
Willem II vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 60% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Willem II and VVV Venlo in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Willem II's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.25
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.86
0.93
VVV Venlo xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
41.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Willem II and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Willem II and 0.93 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 38W 18D 14L from 70 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 22L across 70 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VVV Venlo heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 24W 5D 6L from 35 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 12W 11D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.47 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VVV Venlo in 69%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 38W 18D 14L in their last 70 games (1.89 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 26W 22D 22L in their last 70 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or VVV Venlo away?
Willem II's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.20 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Willem II or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Willem II's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
2
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Willem II 2-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Willem II at 66%, VVV Venlo at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Willem II and 57% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Willem II's games and 66% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Willem II's matches and 57% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Willem II and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat VVV Venlo 2-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.93 xG and VVV Venlo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VVV Venlo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.23 / defence 0.90 against VVV Venlo attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 60% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 17%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 61%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.