De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as De Graafschap face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host ADO Den Haag at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, ADO Den Haag have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, ADO Den Haag have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour ADO Den Haag — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
ADO Den Haag have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 1 for De Graafschap.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2025, ended De Graafschap 2–3 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.
The H2H data backs the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (last 71 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (last 71 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 66% and ADO Den Haag 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 63% | ADO Den Haag 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: De Graafschap surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while ADO Den Haag have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.26 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.130 / defence 1.127 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.183 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.476. ADO Den Haag bring a tight defence (rating 0.717, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 69 games and ADO Den Haag's last 70.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 4.12 | Draw 4.58 | ADO Den Haag 1.86. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.97) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 70% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 33 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG De Graafschap 1.26 / ADO Den Haag 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.130 / def 1.127 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.183 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.97
ADO Den Haag xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag part of?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 24% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.13) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 69 games and ADO Den Haag's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
24%
4.12
22%
4.58
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.23
1.97
ADO Den Haag xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
3%
29.47
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.97 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 71 games, going 34W 16D 21L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 2.01 PPG from 71 outings (44W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.66 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 2.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 22W 6D 8L across their last 36 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.89 points per game from their last 36 away games (20W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.97 scored and 1.13 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 34W 16D 21L in their last 71 games (1.66 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 44W 11D 16L in their last 71 (2.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or ADO Den Haag away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.89 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
ADO Den Haag have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
De Graafschap's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
3
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 64%, ADO Den Haag 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for De Graafschap and 58% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of De Graafschap's games and 56% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of De Graafschap's matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 81% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 1-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.26 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.97 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.13 / defence 1.13 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.18 / defence 0.72, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 63%, ADO Den Haag 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.66 PPG, ADO Den Haag 2.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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