🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as ADO Den Haag face Jong Ajax.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as ADO Den Haag welcome Jong Ajax to WerkTalent Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at WerkTalent Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WerkTalent Stadion. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at WerkTalent Stadion this season.

Jong Ajax — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Jong Ajax's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, ADO Den Haag have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of ADO Den Haag: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Jong Ajax, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).

Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 56% versus Jong Ajax 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 65% | Jong Ajax 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.62 xG and Jong Ajax 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.051 / defence 0.771 | Jong Ajax attack 0.733 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.508. ADO Den Haag's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 ADO Den Haag games / 71 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 56% | Draw 25% | Jong Ajax 20%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Jong Ajax 5.00. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: ADO Den Haag 50% | Jong Ajax 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights