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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.80 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: De Graafschap 2W, Dordrecht 2W, 5D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 66% versus Dordrecht 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 63% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.085 / defence 1.158 | Dordrecht attack 0.887 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.474. Data: 68 De Graafschap games / 68 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 5 | Dordrecht 2W • Goals trend: 2.44 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 13 – 9 Dordrecht • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: De Graafschap 22% / Draw 56% / Dordrecht 22% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 39% / draw 25% / away 36% • Goals: H2H average 2.44/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.09 (60% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 62% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L • Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D • De Graafschap home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 3 • Dordrecht away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (De Graafschap 1.50 PPG vs Dordrecht 1.80 PPG) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson projects 1.57 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Dordrecht): Poisson projects 1.51 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.09 (60% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates De Graafschap 7/10, Dordrecht 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 62% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG De Graafschap 1.57 / Dordrecht 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.085 / def 1.158 | Dordrecht attack 0.887 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Dordrecht xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
• Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 5 | Dordrecht 2W • Goals trend: 2.44 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 13 – 9 Dordrecht • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: De Graafschap 22% / Draw 56% / Dordrecht 22% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 39% / draw 25% / away 36% • Goals: H2H average 2.44/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.09 (60% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 62% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
• De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L • Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D • De Graafschap home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 3 • Dordrecht away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (De Graafschap 1.50 PPG vs Dordrecht 1.80 PPG) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson projects 1.57 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Dordrecht): Poisson projects 1.51 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.09 (60% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates De Graafschap 7/10, Dordrecht 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 62% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture