Vicenza Virtus 0-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reggina make the trip to Stadio Paolo Mazza to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 1W 0D 6L across 7 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Paolo Mazza this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 1L from 7 games (1.43 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.43 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Reggina arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.43 vs 0.43) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Vicenza Virtus half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 57% versus Reggina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 57% | Reggina 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.94 xG and Reggina 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.722 / defence 1.298 | Reggina attack 0.642 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.338. Vicenza Virtus's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Reggina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Vicenza Virtus games / 7 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 29% | Draw 32% | Reggina 38%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Reggina 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 33% | Reggina 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 29% | Draw 32% | Reggina 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.94 / Reggina 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.722 / def 1.298 | Reggina attack 0.642 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Reggina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Reggina xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina?
Vicenza Virtus 0 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 29% chance of winning, Reggina a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Reggina in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-0D-6L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Reggina (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.64x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.09
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.05
1.11
Reggina xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.3 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.11 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 1W 0D 6L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggina's form line: 2W 4D 1L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Reggina are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That actually lags their 0.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Reggina have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Reggina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Reggina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Reggina in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 0D 6L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Reggina have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.00 PPG; Reggina away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2022, when Reggina 3-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 33%, Reggina 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Vicenza Virtus and 0% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 67% of games; Reggina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 67% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 0% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Reggina tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reggina in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Vicenza Virtus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Vicenza Virtus 0-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.94 xG and Reggina 1.11 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vicenza Virtus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.72 / defence 1.30 against Reggina attack 0.64 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 29% | Draw 32% | Reggina 38%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 57%, Reggina 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggina's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.