Pordenone 1-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Guido Teghil plays host to Pordenone versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pordenone have collected 0.14 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 0W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 2.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.71 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Pordenone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pordenone have posted 0W 1D 3L at Stadio Guido Teghil — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Serie B this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ternana are the stronger side — 0.86 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.14). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 43% versus Ternana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 57% | Ternana 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.17 xG and Ternana 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.808 / defence 1.584 | Ternana attack 0.777 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.338. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Pordenone games / 7 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 26% | Draw 26% | Ternana 48%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Ternana 2.08. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 50% | Ternana 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 26% | Draw 26% | Ternana 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Pordenone 1.17 / Ternana 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.808 / def 1.584 | Ternana attack 0.777 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Ternana (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Ternana xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Ternana kick off?
Pordenone vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Ternana?
Pordenone 1 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Pordenone vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Ternana part of?
Pordenone vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 26% chance of winning, Ternana a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pordenone and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Ternana in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 2.71 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pordenone's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.78x) against Pordenone's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
26%
3.83
26%
3.81
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.81
1.65
Ternana xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
5%
19.85
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.65 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Pordenone have picked up 0.14 PPG on a 0W 1D 6L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pordenone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ternana's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ternana are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pordenone have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ternana's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pordenone are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Ternana in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 games (0.14 PPG), while Ternana have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Ternana away?
Pordenone's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.33 PPG; Ternana away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
0
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Ternana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2022, when Ternana 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Pordenone, 67% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pordenone) and 33% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 33% of games; Ternana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pordenone's games and 67% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pordenone vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pordenone's recent games and 33% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Ternana tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Pordenone 1-3 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.17 xG and Ternana 1.65 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ternana outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.81 / defence 1.58 against Ternana attack 0.78 / defence 1.34, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 26% | Draw 26% | Ternana 48%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 57%, Ternana 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.14. Form held, and they took the win. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.