Cremonese 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Benevento meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 2.14 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 5W 0D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 0D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 1L from 7 games (1.71 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 0.86. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.14 vs 1.71 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Cremonese 14% | Benevento 43%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 43% | Benevento 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.25 xG and Benevento 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.134 / defence 1.004 | Benevento attack 0.809 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.284. Data: 7 Cremonese games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 0% | Benevento 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Cremonese 1.25 / Benevento 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.134 / def 1.004 | Benevento attack 0.809 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Benevento kick off?
Cremonese vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Benevento?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Cremonese vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Benevento part of?
Cremonese vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cremonese and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Benevento in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.13x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.81x) against Cremonese's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.35
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.29
1.04
Benevento xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.04 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Cremonese have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 5W 0D 2L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Benevento in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Benevento away?
Cremonese's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.00 PPG; Benevento away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Benevento in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cremonese
2
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Benevento have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2022, when Benevento 1-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Cremonese) and 33% (Benevento) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cremonese and 0% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Benevento in 33%; Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Cremonese's recent matches and 33% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cremonese's recent games and 0% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Benevento tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 8, as Cremonese and Benevento drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.25 xG and Benevento 1.04 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Benevento attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 43%, Benevento 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.