Ascoli 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Lecce meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games (1.86 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 1W 0D 2L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season.
Lecce (all games): 4W 2D 1L across 7 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lecce's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.86 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Lecce — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 57% versus Lecce 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 57% | Lecce 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.94 xG and Lecce 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.875 / defence 1.289 | Lecce attack 0.882 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.338. Data: 7 Ascoli games / 7 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 22% | Draw 28% | Lecce 50%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Lecce 2.00. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 33% | Lecce 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 22% | Draw 28% | Lecce 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Ascoli 0.94 / Lecce 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.875 / def 1.289 | Lecce attack 0.882 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Lecce (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Lecce xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Lecce kick off?
Ascoli vs Lecce kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Lecce?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Ascoli vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Lecce part of?
Ascoli vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 22% chance of winning, Lecce a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ascoli and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Lecce in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Lecce (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lecce's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.88x) against Ascoli's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
22%
4.47
28%
3.60
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.46
1.52
Lecce xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
5%
20.48
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.52 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 4W 1D 2L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lecce's form line: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Ascoli against 2.00 for Lecce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Lecce have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.71 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Lecce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Lecce in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Lecce have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.00 PPG; Lecce away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lecce in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ascoli
1
Draws
1
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Lecce have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2022, when Lecce 3-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Ascoli) and 33% (Lecce) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 67% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lecce in 67%; Ascoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Lecce in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ascoli's recent matches and 33% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 67% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Lecce tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lecce in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli and Lecce finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.94 xG and Lecce 1.52 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.29 against Lecce attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 22% | Draw 28% | Lecce 50%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 57%, Lecce 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.86 PPG, Lecce 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.