Pisa 2-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Pisa welcome Reggina to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 5W 1D 0L from 6 Serie B matches — 2.67 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have recorded 2W 4D 0L from 6 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.67 vs 1.67. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Reggina trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 67% and Reggina 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Reggina 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.29 xG and Reggina 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.046 / defence 0.939 | Reggina attack 0.741 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.281. Data: 6 Pisa games / 6 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 45% | Draw 30% | Reggina 25%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Reggina 4.00. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 33% | Reggina 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 45% | Draw 30% | Reggina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Pisa 1.29 / Reggina 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.046 / def 0.939 | Reggina attack 0.741 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Pisa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Reggina xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Reggina kick off?
Pisa vs Reggina kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Reggina?
Pisa 2 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Pisa vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Reggina part of?
Pisa vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 45% chance of winning, Reggina a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pisa and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Reggina in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-1D-0L in 6 | 2.67 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Reggina (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.05x the league average against Reggina's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.29
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.19
0.89
Reggina xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Pisa and 0.89 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 5W 1D 0L from 6 games, a 2.67 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 0L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reggina heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.17 scored and 0.83 conceded. Pisa's scoring rate against Reggina's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Reggina in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Reggina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Reggina in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 games (2.67 PPG), while Reggina have gone 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Pisa or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reggina in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Reggina 0-2 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 67%, Reggina at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pisa) and 33% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reggina in 33%; Reggina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Reggina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pisa's games and 67% of Reggina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pisa's recent games and 33% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Reggina tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Reggina in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Reggina 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.29 xG and Reggina 0.89 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Reggina attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 45% | Draw 30% | Reggina 25%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Reggina 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggina managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.