Parma 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 1.29 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 2L. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games (1.29 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Monza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.29 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.29 PPG for Parma against 1.29 for Monza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 71% and Monza 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 71% | Monza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.18 xG and Monza 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.900 / defence 1.069 | Monza attack 0.648 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.283. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Parma games / 7 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 32% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 67% | Monza 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 32% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Parma 1.18 / Monza 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.900 / def 1.069 | Monza attack 0.648 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Parma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Monza xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Monza kick off?
Parma vs Monza kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Monza?
Parma 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Parma vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Monza part of?
Parma vs Monza is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 41% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Parma and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Monza in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Monza (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.90) and Monza's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.65x) against Parma's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.09
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Parma xG
Total xG
2.06
0.89
Monza xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Parma and 0.89 for Monza, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 3D 2L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Parma against 1.29 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Parma's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Monza in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Monza have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Monza away?
Parma's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.33 PPG; Monza away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Monza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Monza 1-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Monza?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Parma, 67% for Monza — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Parma) and 67% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Monza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Parma's games and 67% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Parma's recent games and 67% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Monza tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Monza in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Monza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.18 xG and Monza 0.89 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Monza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Monza attack 0.65 / defence 1.22, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 41% | Draw 32% | Monza 26%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 71%, Monza 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.29 PPG, Monza 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.