Reggina 2-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggina host Parma at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggina — All Games: 3W 4D 1L from 8 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.62 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina at Stadio Oreste Granillo this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 2W 4D 2L from 8 Serie B matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.25. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.62 PPG (Reggina) versus 1.25 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Reggina in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 50% versus Parma 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 25% | Parma 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.34 xG and Parma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.984 / defence 1.052 | Parma attack 1.133 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.139. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Reggina games / 8 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 35% | Draw 29% | Parma 36%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Parma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 50% | Parma 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 35% | Draw 29% | Parma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Reggina 1.34 / Parma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.984 / def 1.052 | Parma attack 1.133 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Parma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Parma xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Parma kick off?
Reggina vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Parma?
Reggina 2 - 1 Parma.
Where is Reggina vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Parma part of?
Reggina vs Parma is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 35% chance of winning, Parma a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Reggina and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Parma in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggina's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.50
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.70
1.36
Parma xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Reggina and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Reggina and 1.36 for Parma, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggina's recent record stands at 3W 4D 1L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 2L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.62 PPG, Parma on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 62%.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Parma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Parma in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Parma have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Parma away?
Reggina's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 2.00 PPG; Parma away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Reggina or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Parma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reggina's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggina
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Reggina 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 50%, Parma 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Reggina and 100% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Reggina's games and 75% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggina vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Reggina's matches and 100% of Parma's.
Do Reggina and Parma tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Parma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggina defy the odds to beat Parma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Parma 2-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.34 xG and Parma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Parma attack 1.13 / defence 1.29, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 35% | Draw 29% | Parma 36%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Reggina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 25%, Parma 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.62 PPG, Parma 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.