Ternana 1-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Ternana's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ternana, 1 for Reggina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 64% versus Reggina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 54% | Reggina 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.35 xG and Reggina 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.118 / defence 1.092 | Reggina attack 1.082 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.074. Data: 39 Ternana games / 39 Reggina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ternana 37% | Draw 30% | Reggina 33%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Reggina 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Ternana 40% | Reggina 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 37% | Draw 30% | Reggina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Ternana 1.35 / Reggina 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.118 / def 1.092 | Reggina attack 1.082 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Ternana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Reggina xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Reggina kick off?
Ternana vs Reggina kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Reggina?
Ternana 1 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Ternana vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Reggina part of?
Ternana vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 37% chance of winning, Reggina a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ternana and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Reggina?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Ternana and Reggina in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Reggina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.12) and Reggina's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (1.08x) against Ternana's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.33
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.62
1.27
Reggina xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ternana and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ternana and 1.27 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 15W 9D 15L from 39 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 16L across 39 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Ternana against 1.31 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 9W 2D 8L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggina's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.87 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Reggina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Reggina in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Reggina have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Reggina away?
Ternana's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.53 PPG; Reggina away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ternana or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Reggina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Reggina 2-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 42%, Reggina 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ternana) and 26% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Reggina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ternana's recent matches and 32% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ternana's recent games and 26% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Reggina tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Reggina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Reggina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Reggina 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.35 xG and Reggina 1.27 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggina landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Reggina attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 37% | Draw 30% | Reggina 33%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 54%, Reggina 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggina's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.38 PPG, Reggina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.