Spal 1-3 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 1 as Spal welcome Reggina to Stadio Paolo Mazza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spal haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggina — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Reggina haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Reggina have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spal 1.10 PPG, Reggina 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Spal, 2 for Reggina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Reggina trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 58% versus Reggina 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 47% | Reggina 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.44 xG and Reggina 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.018 / defence 1.053 | Reggina attack 0.855 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.093. Data: 38 Spal games / 38 Reggina games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Spal 46% | Draw 29% | Reggina 25%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Reggina 4.00. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spal as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 60% | Reggina 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 46% | Draw 29% | Reggina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Spal 1.44 / Reggina 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.018 / def 1.053 | Reggina attack 0.855 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Spal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Reggina xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Reggina kick off?
Spal vs Reggina kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Reggina?
Spal 1 - 3 Reggina.
Where is Spal vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Reggina part of?
Spal vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 46% chance of winning, Reggina a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Spal and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Reggina?
Record (2 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 2W.
What form are Spal and Reggina in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Spal (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.02x the league average against Reggina's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.48
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Spal xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
Reggina xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Spal and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Spal and 0.98 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 15D 14L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. Spal haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (13W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. Reggina haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.11 PPG, Reggina on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Spal's home form reads 4W 8D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggina have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.82 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Pre-Season
Reggina
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Reggina in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 9W 15D 14L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Reggina have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Reggina away?
Spal's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.05 PPG; Reggina away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Spal or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Reggina in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Spal's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
0
Draws
3
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Reggina have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Reggina 0-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 68%, Reggina 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Spal) and 21% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Reggina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Spal's recent matches and 32% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Spal's recent games and 21% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Reggina tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Reggina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggina cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Spal 1-3 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.44 xG and Reggina 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Reggina outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Reggina attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 46% | Draw 29% | Reggina 25%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Reggina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 47%, Reggina 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Reggina's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.11 PPG, Reggina 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.