Modena 4-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 3 as Modena welcome Ternana to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ternana's 1.90 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Modena's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.06 xG and Ternana 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.706 / defence 1.121 | Ternana attack 1.074 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.074. Modena's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Modena games / 40 Ternana games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Modena 29% | Draw 30% | Ternana 41%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Ternana 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 29% | Draw 30% | Ternana 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Modena 1.06 / Ternana 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.706 / def 1.121 | Ternana attack 1.074 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Ternana (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ternana xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Ternana kick off?
Modena vs Ternana kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Ternana?
Modena 4 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Modena vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Ternana part of?
Modena vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 29% chance of winning, Ternana a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Modena and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Ternana in?
Modena (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L. Ternana (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.71x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
29%
3.45
30%
3.29
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Modena xG
Total xG
2.35
1.29
Ternana xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Modena and 1.29 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Modena — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ternana in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Ternana in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Ternana have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Modena or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ternana in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Ternana runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Modena won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Ternana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ternana 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Ternana?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 50% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Modena's recent games and 50% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Ternana tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Ternana 4-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.06 xG and Ternana 1.29 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.71 / defence 1.12 against Ternana attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Modena 29% | Draw 30% | Ternana 41%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Ternana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Modena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.