Sudtirol 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Venezia at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.50 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.24 xG and Venezia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.874 / defence 1.150 | Venezia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.074. Data: 1 Sudtirol games / 1 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 32% | Venezia 29%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Venezia (0.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 32% | Venezia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Sudtirol 1.24 / Venezia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.874 / def 1.150 | Venezia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Venezia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Venezia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Sudtirol 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Venezia part of?
Sudtirol vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 39% chance of winning, Venezia a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sudtirol and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Venezia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.87) and Venezia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
39%
2.60
32%
3.10
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.29
1.05
Venezia xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.05 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 0.00 PPG, Venezia on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Venezia in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Venezia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Venezia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 100% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sudtirol's recent games and 100% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Venezia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Venezia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Sudtirol 1-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.24 xG and Venezia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 39% | Draw 32% | Venezia 29%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 0%, Venezia 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 0.00 PPG, Venezia 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.