Ascoli 2-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Ternana at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Ascoli haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ternana haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ascoli at 1.90 PPG versus Ternana's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ascoli, 0 for Ternana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 4–1 with Ascoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 50% versus Ternana 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 40% | Ternana 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.60 xG and Ternana 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.025 / defence 0.900 | Ternana attack 1.088 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.093. Data: 38 Ascoli games / 38 Ternana games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 49% | Draw 27% | Ternana 24%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 4.17. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 49% | Draw 27% | Ternana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Ascoli 1.60 / Ternana 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.025 / def 0.900 | Ternana attack 1.088 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ternana xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Ternana kick off?
Ascoli vs Ternana kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Ternana?
Ascoli 2 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Ascoli vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Ternana part of?
Ascoli vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 49% chance of winning, Ternana a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ascoli and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Ternana?
Record (2 meetings): Ascoli 2W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Ternana in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ascoli (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.72
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.67
1.07
Ternana xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
20.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.07 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 8D 12L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. Ascoli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.42 PPG from 38 outings (15W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. Ternana haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.63 PPG, Ternana on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ascoli's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.53 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Pre-Season
Ternana
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Ternana in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Ternana have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Ternana away?
Ascoli's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.42 PPG; Ternana away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ascoli go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Ascoli won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ascoli's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Ascoli
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 5, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Ternana?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ascoli at 47%, Ternana at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Ascoli) and 58% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ascoli's games and 84% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ascoli's recent games and 58% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Ternana tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ternana in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Ternana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Ternana 2-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.60 xG and Ternana 1.07 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Ternana attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 49% | Draw 27% | Ternana 24%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 40%, Ternana 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.63 PPG, Ternana 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.