Reggina 4-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Reggina (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Reggina are significantly better at Stadio Oreste Granillo than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Serie B outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Reggina's 1.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sudtirol's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.50 xG and Sudtirol 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.939 / defence 1.059 | Sudtirol attack 0.732 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.085. Data: 40 Reggina games / 2 Sudtirol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reggina 52% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 21%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 4.76. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 52% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Reggina 1.50 / Sudtirol 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.939 / def 1.059 | Sudtirol attack 0.732 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Reggina (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sudtirol xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Sudtirol kick off?
Reggina vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Sudtirol?
Reggina 4 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Reggina vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Sudtirol part of?
Reggina vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 52% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Reggina and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Sudtirol in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reggina's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.73x) against Reggina's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.34
0.84
Sudtirol xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Reggina and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Reggina and 0.84 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Reggina are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sudtirol.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sudtirol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reggina won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Sudtirol?
From 3 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Sudtirol 1-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reggina's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggina's recent games and 50% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reggina run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Sudtirol 4-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.50 xG and Sudtirol 0.84 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Reggina beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Sudtirol attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 52% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 21%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 50%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggina scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.