Cosenza 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cosenza at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Modena (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Serie B outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Cosenza's favour (1.70 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.43 xG and Modena 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.012 / defence 1.050 | Modena attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.074. Data: 39 Cosenza games / 1 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 31% | Modena 23%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 4.35. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 31% | Modena 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cosenza 1.43 / Modena 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.012 / def 1.050 | Modena attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Modena xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Modena kick off?
Cosenza vs Modena kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Modena?
Cosenza 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Cosenza vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Modena part of?
Cosenza vs Modena is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 46% chance of winning, Modena a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cosenza and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Modena in?
Cosenza (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Modena (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.01x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.85x) against Cosenza's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.28
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.39
0.96
Modena xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.96 for Modena, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Cosenza have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cosenza are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Modena.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cosenza have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Modena in 0%.
Defensively: Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Modena in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Modena have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Cosenza or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Modena in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Modena 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Cosenza's recent matches and 0% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Cosenza's recent games and 0% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Modena tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Modena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.43 xG and Modena 0.96 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Modena attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 46% | Draw 31% | Modena 23%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 0%, Modena 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.