Spal 1-1 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Crotone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spal and Crotone meet at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Spal's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crotone (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Crotone's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spal have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Crotone in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Spal, 0 for Crotone and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Spal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Crotone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 56% versus Crotone 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 47% | Crotone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.50 xG and Crotone 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 0.992 / defence 1.484 | Crotone attack 0.755 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.040. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Spal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Spal games / 34 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 43% | Draw 30% | Crotone 27%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Crotone 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 60% | Crotone 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 43% | Draw 30% | Crotone 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Spal 1.50 / Crotone 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 0.992 / def 1.484 | Crotone attack 0.755 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Spal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Crotone xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Crotone kick off?
Spal vs Crotone kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Crotone?
Spal 1 - 1 Crotone.
Where is Spal vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Crotone part of?
Spal vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 43% chance of winning, Crotone a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Spal and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 0 | Crotone 0W.
What form are Spal and Crotone in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spal's attack rating (0.99) and Crotone's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crotone's attack (0.76x) against Spal's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.29
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Spal xG
Total xG
2.67
1.17
Crotone xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Spal and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Spal and 1.17 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spal come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 13D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Crotone sit at 0.62 PPG from 34 outings (3W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Spal against 0.62 for Crotone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Spal's home form reads 3W 7D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Crotone have taken 0.24 points per game from 17 outings (0W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spal are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Current Season
Crotone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Crotone in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 7W 13D 14L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while Crotone have gone 3W 12D 19L in their last 34 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Crotone away?
Spal's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 0.94 PPG; Crotone away: 0.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spal
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Spal 1-1 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Crotone?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 71%, Crotone 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Spal) and 47% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Crotone in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Spal's games and 59% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Spal's recent games and 47% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Crotone tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Crotone in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Crotone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal and Crotone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.50 xG and Crotone 1.17 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 0.99 / defence 1.48 against Crotone attack 0.76 / defence 1.46, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 43% | Draw 30% | Crotone 27%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 47%, Crotone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Crotone's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.00 PPG, Crotone 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crotone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.