Reggina 1-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Reggina welcome Lecce to Stadio Oreste Granillo. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reggina's home record at Stadio Oreste Granillo: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lecce have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Lecce's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Reggina's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reggina, 1 for Lecce and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Lecce winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reggina in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Lecce in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 35% versus Lecce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 32% | Lecce 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 0.77 xG and Lecce 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.788 / defence 1.267 | Lecce attack 1.036 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.039. Reggina's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Reggina games / 34 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 18% | Draw 33% | Lecce 48%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 5.56 | Draw 3.03 | Lecce 2.08. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 20% | Lecce 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 18% | Draw 33% | Lecce 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Reggina 0.77 / Lecce 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.788 / def 1.267 | Lecce attack 1.036 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Lecce (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Lecce xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Lecce kick off?
Reggina vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Lecce?
Reggina 1 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Reggina vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Lecce part of?
Reggina vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 18% chance of winning, Lecce a 48% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Reggina and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 0 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Reggina and Lecce in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reggina's attack at 0.79x the league average against Lecce's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
18%
5.41
33%
3.01
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.13
1.36
Lecce xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
5%
21.14
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 16.2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reggina and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Reggina and 1.36 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggina come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 8D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.91 PPG from 34 outings (17W 14D 3L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Lecce carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Reggina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Reggina's home form reads 8W 2D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (6W 9D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reggina are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.62 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Lecce in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Lecce have gone 17W 14D 3L in their last 34 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.53 PPG; Lecce away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Reggina or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lecce in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reggina
0
Draws
1
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Lecce have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Reggina 1-0 Lecce.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 35%, Lecce 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reggina) and 35% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lecce in 35%; Reggina have failed to score in 41% of games; Lecce in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Reggina's recent matches and 53% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reggina's recent games and 35% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Lecce tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lecce in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggina defy the odds to beat Lecce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Lecce 1-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 0.77 xG and Lecce 1.36 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecce landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.79 / defence 1.27 against Lecce attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 18% | Draw 33% | Lecce 48%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Reggina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 32%, Lecce 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecce's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Reggina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.