Parma 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Ascoli meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ascoli (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ascoli's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Parma, 1.60 for Ascoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Parma 0W, Ascoli 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Ascoli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 41% | Ascoli 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.60 xG and Ascoli 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.164 / defence 1.247 | Ascoli attack 0.959 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.053. Ascoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Parma games / 34 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 43% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 28%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Ascoli 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 70% | Ascoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 43% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Parma 1.60 / Ascoli 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.164 / def 1.247 | Ascoli attack 0.959 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Parma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Ascoli xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Ascoli kick off?
Parma vs Ascoli kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Ascoli?
Parma 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Parma vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Ascoli part of?
Parma vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 43% chance of winning, Ascoli a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Parma and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Parma and Ascoli in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Ascoli (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.16x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.96x) against Parma's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.47
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Parma xG
Total xG
2.86
1.26
Ascoli xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Parma and 1.26 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma's recent record stands at 10W 15D 9L from 34 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 11L across 34 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Parma against 1.62 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Parma have managed 5W 8D 4L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 9W 2D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.35 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 10W 15D 9L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.35 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Parma or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ascoli in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
2
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Parma 1-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 59%, Ascoli 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Parma) and 53% (Ascoli).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Parma's games and 59% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Parma's recent games and 53% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Ascoli tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.60 xG and Ascoli 1.26 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.16 / defence 1.25 against Ascoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 43% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 28%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 41%, Ascoli 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.32 PPG, Ascoli 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.