Crotone 1-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 37%, yet in-form Ternana provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crotone vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Crotone welcome Ternana to Stadio Ezio Scida. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crotone's home record at Stadio Ezio Scida: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Ternana — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ternana away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ternana are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crotone, 1 for Ternana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Ternana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Crotone trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ternana trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 58% versus Ternana 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 46% | Ternana 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.41 xG and Ternana 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.899 / defence 1.194 | Ternana attack 1.038 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.056. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Crotone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Crotone games / 33 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 37% | Draw 31% | Ternana 32%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Ternana 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crotone as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ternana (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crotone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Crotone 50% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 37% | Draw 31% | Ternana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Crotone 1.41 / Ternana 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.899 / def 1.194 | Ternana attack 1.038 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Crotone (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Ternana xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Ternana kick off?
Crotone vs Ternana kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Ternana?
Crotone 1 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Crotone vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Ternana part of?
Crotone vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 37% chance of winning, Ternana a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Crotone and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Crotone and Ternana in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crotone's attack rating (0.90) and Ternana's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.19
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.72
1.31
Ternana xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Crotone and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Crotone and 1.31 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crotone come into this having played 33 games, going 3W 12D 18L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (12W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Crotone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Crotone's home form reads 3W 8D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.64 PPG overall — Crotone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crotone are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Ternana in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 3W 12D 18L in their last 33 games (0.64 PPG), while Ternana have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Ternana away?
Ternana's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.06 PPG; Ternana away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
0
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Ternana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Crotone 1-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Crotone at 56%, Ternana at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Crotone) and 50% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Crotone's games and 81% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Crotone's recent games and 50% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Ternana tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ternana in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Crotone 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Crotone 1-2 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.41 xG and Ternana 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Ternana attack 1.04 / defence 1.50, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 37% | Draw 31% | Ternana 32%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 46%, Ternana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.