Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Cosenza travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Monday 18 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cremonese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cremonese register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Cosenza in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Cosenza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Cosenza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Cosenza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.76 xG and Cosenza 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.171 / defence 1.160 | Cosenza attack 0.750 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.039. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Cremonese games / 34 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 55% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 17%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Cosenza 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cremonese (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 80% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 55% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Cremonese 1.76 / Cosenza 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.171 / def 1.160 | Cosenza attack 0.750 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cosenza xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Cosenza kick off?
Cremonese vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Cremonese 3 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Cremonese vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cosenza part of?
Cremonese vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 55% chance of winning, Cosenza a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cremonese and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Cosenza in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.17) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
55%
1.80
28%
3.58
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.67
0.90
Cosenza xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
35.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.90 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 18W 9D 7L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 6W 10D 18L from 34 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (10W 6D 1L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 7D 10L from 17 away games — 0.41 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.88 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 18W 9D 7L in their last 34 games (1.85 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 6W 10D 18L in their last 34 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cosenza away?
Cremonese's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.12 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 5, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Cosenza?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 65%, Cosenza 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 41% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cremonese's games and 59% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 41% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cosenza tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.76 xG and Cosenza 0.90 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Cosenza attack 0.75 / defence 1.45, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 55% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 17%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 47%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.