Cittadella 1-2 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Alessandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alessandria make the trip to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to face Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Alessandria's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Alessandria's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cittadella's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Alessandria's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cittadella lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Cittadella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cittadella — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Alessandria — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 44% versus Alessandria 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 32% | Alessandria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.24 xG and Alessandria 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.773 / defence 1.057 | Alessandria attack 0.697 / defence 1.543. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.053. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.543 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Cittadella games / 34 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 45% | Draw 34% | Alessandria 21%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Alessandria 4.76. Cittadella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Alessandria 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 45% | Draw 34% | Alessandria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Cittadella 1.24 / Alessandria 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.773 / def 1.057 | Alessandria attack 0.697 / def 1.543 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Alessandria xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Alessandria kick off?
Cittadella vs Alessandria kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Alessandria?
Cittadella 1 - 2 Alessandria.
Where is Cittadella vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Alessandria part of?
Cittadella vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 45% chance of winning, Alessandria a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cittadella and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 1W | Draws 0 | Alessandria 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Alessandria in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Alessandria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cittadella's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.70x) against Cittadella's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
45%
2.22
34%
2.92
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.02
0.78
Alessandria xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.78 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 12W 12D 10L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Alessandria's form line: 7W 8D 19L from 34 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Cittadella are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alessandria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Alessandria have gone 2W 3D 12L from 17 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 0.97 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Alessandria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 12W 12D 10L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 7W 8D 19L in their last 34 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Alessandria away?
Cittadella's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.35 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Alessandria in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cittadella
0
Draws
1
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Alessandria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Cittadella 1-2 Alessandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 41%, Alessandria 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cittadella) and 59% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 29% of games; Alessandria in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cittadella's recent matches and 47% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cittadella's recent games and 59% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Alessandria tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alessandria defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.24 xG and Alessandria 0.78 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alessandria outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against Alessandria attack 0.70 / defence 1.54, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 45% | Draw 34% | Alessandria 21%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Alessandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 32%, Alessandria 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Alessandria's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Alessandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alessandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.