Genoa 1-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Reggina travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 March 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Reggina — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggina have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Genoa have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Genoa, 1 for Reggina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Reggina trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 39% versus Reggina 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 39% | Reggina 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.50 xG and Reggina 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.118 / defence 0.679 | Reggina attack 1.073 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 0.974. Genoa's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Genoa games / 67 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 56% | Draw 27% | Reggina 17%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Reggina 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Genoa (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 10% | Reggina 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 56% | Draw 27% | Reggina 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Genoa 1.50 / Reggina 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.118 / def 0.679 | Reggina attack 1.073 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.147 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Genoa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Reggina xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Reggina kick off?
Genoa vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Reggina?
Genoa 1 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Genoa vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Reggina part of?
Genoa vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 56% chance of winning, Reggina a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Genoa and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Genoa and Reggina in?
Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Reggina (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.12) and Reggina's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.73
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.21
0.71
Reggina xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
28%
3.64
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Genoa and 0.71 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Reggina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa come into this having played 67 games, going 20W 25D 22L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 1.34 PPG from 67 outings (26W 12D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.27 PPG, Reggina on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Genoa's home form reads 11W 14D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggina have taken 1.15 points per game from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.04 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Reggina in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 20W 25D 22L in their last 67 games (1.27 PPG), while Reggina have gone 26W 12D 29L in their last 67 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Reggina away?
Genoa's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.42 PPG; Reggina away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Genoa or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Reggina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Reggina runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Reggina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2023, when Genoa 1-0 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Genoa 30% BTTS, Reggina 39%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Genoa and 30% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 39% of games; Reggina in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Genoa's recent matches and 39% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Genoa's recent games and 30% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Reggina tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Reggina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Reggina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Reggina 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.50 xG and Reggina 0.71 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.12 / defence 0.68 against Reggina attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 56% | Draw 27% | Reggina 17%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Reggina 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.27 PPG, Reggina 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.