Perugia 0-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pordenone make the trip to Stadio Renato Curi to face Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pordenone (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone away from home this season: 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Perugia's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Perugia, 0 for Pordenone and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Perugia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 53% versus Pordenone 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 26% | Pordenone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.35 xG and Pordenone 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.887 / defence 1.000 | Pordenone attack 0.702 / defence 1.571. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 1.238. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.571 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Perugia games / 19 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 47% | Draw 31% | Pordenone 23%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Pordenone 4.35. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 56% | Pordenone 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 47% | Draw 31% | Pordenone 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Perugia 1.35 / Pordenone 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.887 / def 1.000 | Pordenone attack 0.702 / def 1.571 | league avg home 0.968 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Perugia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Pordenone xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Pordenone kick off?
Perugia vs Pordenone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Pordenone?
Perugia 0 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Perugia vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Pordenone part of?
Perugia vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 47% chance of winning, Pordenone a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Perugia and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 0 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Perugia and Pordenone in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.89) and Pordenone's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.70x) against Perugia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
47%
2.15
31%
3.24
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.22
0.87
Pordenone xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Perugia and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Perugia and 0.87 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Perugia come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 10D 3L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pordenone sit at 0.42 PPG from 19 outings (1W 5D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Perugia's home form reads 3W 4D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Pordenone have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.79 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 6W 10D 3L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 1W 5D 13L in their last 19 (0.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Pordenone away?
Perugia's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.44 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Perugia or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Pordenone in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Perugia
0
Draws
1
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Pordenone have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Perugia 0-1 Pordenone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 56%, Pordenone 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Perugia and 56% for Pordenone.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pordenone in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Pordenone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Perugia's games and 56% of Pordenone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Perugia's recent games and 56% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Pordenone tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pordenone defy the odds to beat Perugia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone beat Perugia 0-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.35 xG and Pordenone 0.87 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Perugia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Pordenone attack 0.70 / defence 1.57, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 47% | Draw 31% | Pordenone 23%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Pordenone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 26%, Pordenone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Pordenone's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.42. Form was overturned, with Pordenone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.