Ascoli 0-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ascoli welcome Perugia to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season.
Perugia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Perugia have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.80 PPG, Perugia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ascoli, 0 for Perugia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Ascoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Perugia trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 65% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 50% | Perugia 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.92 xG and Perugia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.842 / defence 1.330 | Perugia attack 0.901 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.186. Data: 20 Ascoli games / 20 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 22% | Draw 32% | Perugia 46%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Perugia 2.17. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 56% | Perugia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 22% | Draw 32% | Perugia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Ascoli 0.92 / Perugia 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.842 / def 1.330 | Perugia attack 0.901 / def 1.142 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Perugia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Perugia xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Perugia kick off?
Ascoli vs Perugia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Perugia?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Ascoli vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Perugia part of?
Ascoli vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 22% chance of winning, Perugia a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ascoli and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Perugia in?
Ascoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.84) and Perugia's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
22%
4.65
32%
3.09
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.34
1.42
Perugia xG
4.65
22%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
19.27
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.42 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 9W 5D 6L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 6W 10D 4L from 20 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.60 PPG, Perugia on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L). That actually lags their 1.60 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Perugia have gone 2W 6D 1L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.05 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Perugia in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Perugia in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while Perugia have gone 6W 10D 4L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.00 PPG; Perugia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Perugia in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Perugia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ascoli's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ascoli
0
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Perugia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Ascoli 1-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 56%, Perugia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 44% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 44%; Ascoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Perugia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Perugia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ascoli's games and 56% of Perugia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 44% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Perugia tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Perugia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.92 xG and Perugia 1.42 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.33 against Perugia attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 22% | Draw 32% | Perugia 46%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 50%, Perugia 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Perugia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.60 PPG, Perugia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Perugia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.