Lecce 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lecce welcome Cremonese to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecce have posted 5W 3D 0L at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 1D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lecce at 1.90 PPG versus Cremonese's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lecce have won 0, Cremonese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 44% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 50% | Cremonese 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.53 xG and Cremonese 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.402 / defence 1.035 | Cremonese attack 0.986 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 1.258. Lecce carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Lecce games / 19 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 42% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 31%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 50% | Cremonese 44%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 42% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Lecce 1.53 / Cremonese 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.402 / def 1.035 | Cremonese attack 0.986 / def 1.116 | league avg home 0.976 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Lecce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Cremonese xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Cremonese kick off?
Lecce vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Lecce 2 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Lecce vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Cremonese part of?
Lecce vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 42% chance of winning, Cremonese a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lecce and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Lecce and Cremonese in?
Lecce (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (1.40) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.73
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.81
1.28
Cremonese xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lecce and 1.28 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 9W 7D 2L from 18 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 4L across 18 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.89 PPG, Cremonese on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 5W 3D 0L from 8 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 5W 1D 2L across 8 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 9W 7D 2L in their last 18 games (1.89 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Cremonese away?
Lecce's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.25 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lecce or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Cremonese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lecce
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 3, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Cremonese?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 50%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lecce) and 50% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lecce's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lecce's matches and 50% of Cremonese's.
Do Lecce and Cremonese tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Cremonese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Cremonese 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.53 xG and Cremonese 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.40 / defence 1.03 against Cremonese attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 42% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 31%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 50%, Cremonese 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.89 PPG, Cremonese 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.