Pordenone 0-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Pordenone welcome Lecce to Stadio Guido Teghil. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone at Stadio Guido Teghil this season: 1W 3D 5L from 9 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lecce — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's away record: 3W 4D 2L from 9 road trips in Serie B this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Lecce's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Pordenone trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lecce trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 59% versus Lecce 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 53% | Lecce 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.85 xG and Lecce 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.869 / defence 1.306 | Lecce attack 0.798 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.269. Data: 18 Pordenone games / 17 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 23% | Draw 30% | Lecce 47%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Lecce 2.13. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pordenone 56% | Lecce 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 23% | Draw 30% | Lecce 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Pordenone 0.85 / Lecce 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.869 / def 1.306 | Lecce attack 0.798 / def 0.987 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Lecce (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Lecce xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Lecce kick off?
Pordenone vs Lecce kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Lecce?
Pordenone 0 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Pordenone vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Lecce part of?
Pordenone vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 23% chance of winning, Lecce a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pordenone and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Lecce in?
Pordenone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Lecce (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pordenone's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
23%
4.32
30%
3.33
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.17
1.32
Lecce xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.32 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pordenone's recent record stands at 1W 5D 11L from 17 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 2L across 17 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lecce by 1.35 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pordenone have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 3W 4D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pordenone are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.71 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Lecce in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 1W 5D 11L in their last 17 games (0.47 PPG), while Lecce have gone 8W 7D 2L in their last 17 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.75 PPG; Lecce away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Pordenone or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Lecce in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pordenone and Lecce runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
0
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Lecce have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Lecce 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 62%, Lecce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pordenone) and 38% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 38%; Lecce in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Lecce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pordenone's games and 50% of Lecce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pordenone vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pordenone's recent games and 38% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Lecce tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lecce in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Pordenone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Pordenone 0-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.85 xG and Lecce 1.32 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.87 / defence 1.31 against Lecce attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 23% | Draw 30% | Lecce 47%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 53%, Lecce 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lecce's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pordenone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.