Monza 1-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Monza welcome Reggina to U-Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at U-Power Stadium, Monza have gone 7W 2D 0L this season (9 games, 2.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Reggina — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's away record: 3W 3D 3L from 9 road trips in Serie B this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Monza are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Monza, 0 for Reggina and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Reggina in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 63% versus Reggina 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 42% | Reggina 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.71 xG and Reggina 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.429 / defence 1.131 | Reggina attack 0.677 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.264. Monza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Reggina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Monza games / 19 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 54% | Draw 25% | Reggina 21%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Reggina 4.76. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monza 67% | Reggina 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 54% | Draw 25% | Reggina 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Monza 1.71 / Reggina 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.429 / def 1.131 | Reggina attack 0.677 / def 1.224 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Monza (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Reggina xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Reggina kick off?
Monza vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Reggina?
Monza 1 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Monza vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Reggina part of?
Monza vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 54% chance of winning, Reggina a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monza and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 1 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Monza and Reggina in?
Monza (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Reggina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Monza's attack rating (1.43) and Reggina's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.96
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Monza xG
Total xG
2.68
0.97
Reggina xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
26.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Monza and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Monza and 0.97 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza come into this having played 19 games, going 8W 8D 3L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Reggina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Monza's home form reads 7W 2D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Reggina have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.84 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monza have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Reggina in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 8W 8D 3L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Reggina have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Reggina away?
Monza's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.56 PPG; Reggina away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Monza or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Reggina in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Reggina runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Monza
1
Draws
0
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Reggina have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Monza 1-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Reggina?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 67%, Reggina 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 56% for Monza and 11% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reggina in 33%; Reggina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Monza's recent matches and 33% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Monza's recent games and 11% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Reggina tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reggina in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Reggina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Reggina 1-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.71 xG and Reggina 0.97 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.43 / defence 1.13 against Reggina attack 0.68 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 54% | Draw 25% | Reggina 21%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 42%, Reggina 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.