Alessandria 2-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alessandria vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alessandria and Benevento meet at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alessandria have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Serie B appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Benevento (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Benevento have posted 4W 3D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Benevento are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Alessandria, 1 for Benevento and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 3–4 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alessandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 39% versus Benevento 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 33% | Benevento 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.67 xG and Benevento 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.683 / defence 1.122 | Benevento attack 0.877 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.264. Alessandria's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Alessandria games / 19 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 19% | Draw 31% | Benevento 49%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 2.04. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 33% | Benevento 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 19% | Draw 31% | Benevento 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Alessandria 0.67 / Benevento 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.683 / def 1.122 | Benevento attack 0.877 / def 1.008 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Benevento (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Benevento xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Benevento kick off?
Alessandria vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Benevento?
Alessandria 2 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Alessandria vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Benevento part of?
Alessandria vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 19% chance of winning, Benevento a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Alessandria and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Alessandria and Benevento in?
Alessandria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alessandria's attack rating (0.68) and Benevento's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.88x) against Alessandria's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
19%
5.15
31%
3.19
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Alessandria xG
Total xG
1.92
1.24
Benevento xG
5.15
19%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
6%
17.87
25%
3.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 18.3 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.24 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alessandria's recent record stands at 5W 2D 11L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 4L across 18 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alessandria have managed 3W 1D 5L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benevento's away record stands at 4W 3D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alessandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.61 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Benevento in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 5W 2D 11L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Benevento have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.11 PPG; Benevento away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Benevento in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Alessandria 2-0 Benevento.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 33%, Benevento 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Alessandria and 11% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benevento in 33%; Alessandria have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alessandria's recent matches and 44% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Alessandria's recent games and 11% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Benevento tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Benevento in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alessandria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Benevento 2-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.67 xG and Benevento 1.24 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Alessandria beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against Benevento attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 19% | Draw 31% | Benevento 49%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Alessandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 33%, Benevento 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Benevento's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Alessandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alessandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.