Brescia 1-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ternana at 44%, yet in-form Brescia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brescia vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 3W 3D 3L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season.
Ternana (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ternana have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Brescia's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brescia lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 47% versus Ternana 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 37% | Ternana 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.21 xG and Ternana 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.916 / defence 1.201 | Ternana attack 1.003 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.264. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Brescia games / 19 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 27% | Ternana 44%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brescia (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 56% | Ternana 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 27% | Ternana 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Brescia 1.21 / Ternana 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.916 / def 1.201 | Ternana attack 1.003 / def 1.346 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Ternana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Ternana xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Ternana kick off?
Brescia vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Ternana?
Brescia 1 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Brescia vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Ternana part of?
Brescia vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 29% chance of winning, Ternana a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Brescia and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Brescia and Ternana in?
Brescia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brescia's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.00x) against Brescia's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.74
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.52
Ternana xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Brescia and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Brescia and 1.52 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia's recent record stands at 11W 4D 4L from 19 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 8L across 19 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brescia by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.95 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ternana's away record stands at 2W 4D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.53 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 63%.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Ternana in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 11W 4D 4L in their last 19 games (1.95 PPG), while Ternana have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Ternana away?
Brescia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.33 PPG; Ternana away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Brescia or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ternana in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Brescia
3
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 3, Ternana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Brescia 0-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Ternana?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Brescia, 78% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Brescia) and 44% (Ternana).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Brescia's games and 78% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Brescia's recent games and 44% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Ternana tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Ternana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Ternana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.21 xG and Ternana 1.52 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against Ternana attack 1.00 / defence 1.35, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 29% | Draw 27% | Ternana 44%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 37%, Ternana 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.