Brescia 1-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Brescia take on Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Brescia welcome Parma to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brescia at 1.50 PPG versus Parma's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Brescia have won 1, Parma 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Brescia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Parma in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Parma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Parma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.15 xG and Parma 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.083 / defence 1.158 | Parma attack 0.941 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.058. Data: 33 Brescia games / 33 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 33% | Draw 35% | Parma 33%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Parma 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 60% | Parma 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 33% | Draw 35% | Parma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Brescia 1.15 / Parma 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.083 / def 1.158 | Parma attack 0.941 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Parma xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Parma kick off?
Brescia vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Parma?
Brescia 1 - 0 Parma.
Where is Brescia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Parma part of?
Brescia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 33% chance of winning, Parma a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Brescia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are Brescia and Parma in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Parma (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.08
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.30
1.15
Parma xG
3.08
33%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Brescia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Brescia and 1.15 for Parma, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 13D 5L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (10W 15D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.76 PPG, Parma on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 6W 7D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.38 points per game from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.33 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Parma in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 15W 13D 5L in their last 33 games (1.76 PPG), while Parma have gone 10W 15D 8L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Parma away?
Brescia's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.56 PPG; Parma away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Brescia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Parma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Parma runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Brescia's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
0
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Parma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 62%, Parma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Brescia) and 56% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Brescia's games and 56% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Brescia's recent games and 56% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Parma tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Parma in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Parma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Parma 1-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.15 xG and Parma 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Parma landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Parma attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 33% | Draw 35% | Parma 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Parma 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Parma's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.76 PPG, Parma 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.