Palermo 3-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Empoli travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo in Serie B (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Palermo — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Palermo at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Empoli have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Empoli have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Palermo have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Palermo's 10% BTTS rate and Empoli's 30% (from Palermo's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Palermo 3–1 Empoli — a Palermo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 50% versus Empoli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 43% | Empoli 47%). Note also that Empoli surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Palermo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.62 xG and Empoli 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.113 / defence 0.706 | Empoli attack 0.788 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.036. Empoli's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Palermo have a tight defence (rating 0.706), which is pulling Empoli's projected output down. Data: built from Palermo's last 60 games and Empoli's last 22.
Result probabilities: Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Empoli 12%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.60 | Draw 3.94 | Empoli 8.16. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palermo 10% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Empoli 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Palermo 1.62 / Empoli 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.113 / def 0.706 | Empoli attack 0.788 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Palermo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Empoli xG
36%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Empoli kick off?
Palermo vs Empoli kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Empoli?
Palermo 3 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Palermo vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Empoli part of?
Palermo vs Empoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 62% chance of winning, Empoli a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Palermo and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Palermo vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palermo's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 60 games and Empoli's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
62%
1.60
25%
3.94
12%
8.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.20
0.58
Empoli xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
8.16
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
41.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Palermo and 0.58 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 25W 18D 17L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 13W 20D 27L from 60 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 8W 6D 15L from their last 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.98 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Palermo (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Palermo vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Empoli in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 20D 27L in their last 60 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Empoli away?
Palermo's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.79 PPG; Empoli away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Palermo or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Empoli in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palermo have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Palermo
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Empoli?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 3, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Empoli 2-4 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Empoli?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 34%, Empoli 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Palermo) and 59% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Empoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Palermo's recent matches and 59% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palermo and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Palermo's recent games and 59% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Palermo's recent matches and 76% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Empoli 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Empoli 3-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.62 xG and Empoli 0.58 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.11 / defence 0.71 against Empoli attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Empoli 12%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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