Cosenza 0-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Reggina travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 4W 1D 0L from 5 Serie B appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.40 PPG, Reggina 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Reggina in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Reggina 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 46% | Reggina 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.19 xG and Reggina 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.161 / defence 0.924 | Reggina attack 0.773 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.139. Data: 11 Cosenza games / 11 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 32% | Reggina 24%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Reggina 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Reggina 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 32% | Reggina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Cosenza 1.19 / Reggina 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.161 / def 0.924 | Reggina attack 0.773 / def 1.029 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Reggina xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Reggina kick off?
Cosenza vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Reggina?
Cosenza 0 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Cosenza vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Reggina part of?
Cosenza vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 44% chance of winning, Reggina a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cosenza and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Reggina in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Reggina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
44%
2.30
32%
3.10
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.00
0.81
Reggina xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.81 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 4W 2D 5L from 11 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 2L across 11 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggina by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reggina's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.09 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Reggina in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Reggina have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Reggina away?
Cosenza's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 2.60 PPG; Reggina away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Reggina in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Reggina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
3
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Reggina have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2023, when Cosenza 2-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 60%, Reggina 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Cosenza and 0% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Reggina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cosenza's recent matches and 40% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cosenza's recent games and 0% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Reggina tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Reggina in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggina defy the odds to beat Cosenza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.19 xG and Reggina 0.81 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Reggina attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 44% | Draw 32% | Reggina 24%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Reggina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 46%, Reggina 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggina's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.