Parma 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Parma at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 58% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 67% | Cosenza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.24 xG and Cosenza 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.763 / defence 0.943 | Cosenza attack 0.626 / defence 1.611. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.142. Parma's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.611 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Parma games / 12 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 19%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | Cosenza 5.26. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Parma 1.24 / Cosenza 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.763 / def 0.943 | Cosenza attack 0.626 / def 1.611 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Parma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Cosenza xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cosenza kick off?
Parma vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cosenza?
Parma 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Parma vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cosenza part of?
Parma vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 48% chance of winning, Cosenza a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Parma and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Cosenza in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.76) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.63x) against Parma's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
48%
2.06
33%
3.07
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Parma xG
Total xG
1.91
0.68
Cosenza xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Parma and 0.68 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 4W 4D 4L from 12 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 6L across 12 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Parma against 1.17 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cosenza away?
Parma's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.60 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Parma or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cosenza in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Parma 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cosenza?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 40%, Cosenza 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Parma) and 60% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Cosenza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Parma's recent matches and 60% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Parma's recent games and 60% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cosenza tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 13, as Parma and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.24 xG and Cosenza 0.68 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Cosenza attack 0.63 / defence 1.61, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 48% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 19%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 67%, Cosenza 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.33 PPG, Cosenza 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.