Benevento 1-4 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 3W 2D 1L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's away record: 2W 3D 0L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Benevento, 1.70 for Frosinone — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Frosinone — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 36% versus Frosinone 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 27% | Frosinone 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.04 xG and Frosinone 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.145 / defence 0.981 | Frosinone attack 0.872 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 1.139. Data: 11 Benevento games / 11 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 32%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Frosinone 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 33% | Frosinone 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Benevento 1.04 / Frosinone 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.145 / def 0.981 | Frosinone attack 0.872 / def 0.915 | league avg home 0.991 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Benevento (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Frosinone xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Frosinone kick off?
Benevento vs Frosinone kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Frosinone?
Benevento 1 - 4 Frosinone.
Where is Benevento vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Frosinone part of?
Benevento vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 35% chance of winning, Frosinone a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Benevento and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Frosinone in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.15) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.87x) against Benevento's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
35%
2.82
32%
3.08
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.01
0.97
Frosinone xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Benevento and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Benevento and 0.97 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 4D 2L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (4W 6D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Benevento against 1.64 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Benevento's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.27 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Frosinone in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 games (1.73 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 4W 6D 1L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.60 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Benevento or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Frosinone in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 1-4 on 6 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Frosinone 1-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Benevento) and 40% (Frosinone) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Benevento and 0% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Frosinone in 60%; Benevento have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Benevento's recent matches and 40% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 0% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Benevento 1-4 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.04 xG and Frosinone 0.97 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Frosinone attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 35% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 32%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 27%, Frosinone 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.73 PPG, Frosinone 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.