Ascoli 2-1 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ascoli welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
On current form, Ascoli have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 64% versus Vicenza Virtus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 46% | Vicenza Virtus 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.38 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.818 / defence 1.302 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.829 / defence 1.725. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.141. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.725 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Ascoli games / 11 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 27% | Vicenza Virtus 33%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Vicenza Virtus 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 40% | Vicenza Virtus 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 27% | Vicenza Virtus 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Ascoli 1.38 / Vicenza Virtus 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.818 / def 1.302 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.829 / def 1.725 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Vicenza Virtus xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Ascoli 2 - 1 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 40% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.82) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.64
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.62
1.23
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.23 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vicenza Virtus sit at 0.36 PPG from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ascoli's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.36 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Vicenza Virtus have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.82 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Ascoli's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 0.80 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ascoli
0
Draws
1
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 2-0 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 40%, Vicenza Virtus 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Ascoli) and 80% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 40% of games; Vicenza Virtus in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ascoli's recent matches and 60% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ascoli's recent games and 80% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Vicenza Virtus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Vicenza Virtus 2-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.38 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.23 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.83 / defence 1.73, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 40% | Draw 27% | Vicenza Virtus 33%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 46%, Vicenza Virtus 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.