Alessandria 0-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alessandria vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta plays host to Alessandria versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alessandria's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alessandria have posted 2W 1D 2L at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alessandria are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta than their overall form suggests.
Ternana (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ternana arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alessandria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ternana in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Alessandria — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ternana — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 54% versus Ternana 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 36% | Ternana 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.27 xG and Ternana 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.858 / defence 1.189 | Ternana attack 0.955 / defence 1.513. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.141. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.513 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Alessandria games / 11 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 37%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Ternana 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 60% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Alessandria 1.27 / Ternana 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.858 / def 1.189 | Ternana attack 0.955 / def 1.513 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Ternana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ternana xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Ternana kick off?
Alessandria vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Ternana?
Alessandria 0 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Alessandria vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Ternana part of?
Alessandria vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 36% chance of winning, Ternana a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alessandria and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Ternana in?
Alessandria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Ternana (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alessandria's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.95x) against Alessandria's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.59
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.57
1.29
Ternana xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.29 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alessandria come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 2D 7L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alessandria's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Alessandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alessandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alessandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Ternana in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Ternana have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Ternana away?
Alessandria's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.40 PPG; Ternana away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
0
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Ternana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Ternana 3-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Alessandria, 80% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Alessandria) and 60% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Alessandria's games and 80% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alessandria vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Alessandria's recent games and 60% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Ternana tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Alessandria 0-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.27 xG and Ternana 1.29 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alessandria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Ternana attack 0.95 / defence 1.51, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 37%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 36%, Ternana 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ternana's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.