Reggina 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cittadella make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 1 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reggina (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's home record at Stadio Oreste Granillo: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cittadella have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Reggina. A 0.60 PPG lead over Cittadella (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Reggina — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cittadella — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 50% versus Cittadella 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 30% | Cittadella 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.38 xG and Cittadella 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.060 / defence 1.013 | Cittadella attack 0.674 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.134. Cittadella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Reggina games / 10 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 50% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 19%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Cittadella 5.26. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 60% | Cittadella 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 50% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Reggina 1.38 / Cittadella 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.060 / def 1.013 | Cittadella attack 0.674 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Reggina (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cittadella xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Cittadella kick off?
Reggina vs Cittadella kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Cittadella?
Reggina 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Reggina vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Cittadella part of?
Reggina vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 50% chance of winning, Cittadella a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Reggina and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Cittadella in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Cittadella (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reggina's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.67x) against Reggina's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
50%
2.02
31%
3.21
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.16
0.77
Cittadella xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Reggina and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Reggina and 0.77 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reggina come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 4D 1L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Cittadella — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Reggina's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Reggina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cittadella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Cittadella in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Cittadella away?
Reggina's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 2.50 PPG; Cittadella away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Reggina or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cittadella in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reggina won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggina
1
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cittadella?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Cittadella have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Cittadella 3-2 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 75%, Cittadella 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Reggina) and 25% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Reggina's recent matches and 25% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Reggina's recent games and 25% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Cittadella tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Reggina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Reggina 0-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.38 xG and Cittadella 0.77 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggina fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Cittadella attack 0.67 / defence 1.30, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 50% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 19%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 30%, Cittadella 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Cittadella winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.