Como 4-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Como welcome Perugia to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Como have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 2W 1D 2L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's away record: 3W 3D 0L from 6 road trips in Serie B this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 6 games (83%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Como 1.50 PPG, Perugia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Como's 20% and Perugia's 17% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Como in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Perugia in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 54% versus Perugia 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 27% | Perugia 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 0.55 xG and Perugia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.819 / defence 0.975 | Perugia attack 0.803 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.141. Perugia's defence strength of 0.682 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Como games / 11 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 21% | Draw 38% | Perugia 41%. Fair-value odds: Como 4.76 | Draw 2.63 | Perugia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.44. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.44 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Como's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 26% on No. Form rates corroborate: Como 20% | Perugia 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 21% | Draw 38% | Perugia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Como 0.55 / Perugia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.819 / def 0.975 | Perugia attack 0.803 / def 0.682 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Perugia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Perugia xG
26%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Perugia kick off?
Como vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Perugia?
Como 4 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Como vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Perugia part of?
Como vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Como a 21% chance of winning, Perugia a 41% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Como and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Perugia in?
Como (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Como's attack rating (0.82) and Perugia's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Como's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 25.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.6%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
21%
4.79
38%
2.64
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Como xG
Total xG
1.44
0.89
Perugia xG
4.79
21%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.92
74%
BTTS No
1.34
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
58%
1.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.7 | 21.1 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.2%.
How many goals are Como and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Como and 0.89 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Como have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 4W 4D 3L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 4W 5D 2L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.45 PPG, Perugia on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Como have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.00 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Perugia in coming into this match?
Como have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Perugia have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.40 PPG; Perugia away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Como or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Perugia in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Perugia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Como won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Como
1
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Perugia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Perugia?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Perugia see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Como 20% BTTS, Perugia 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Como and 40% for Perugia.
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Perugia in 80%; Como have failed to score in 40% of games; Perugia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Como's recent matches and 20% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Como's recent games and 40% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Perugia tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Perugia in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Como run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Perugia 4-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 0.55 xG and Perugia 0.89 xG, a combined 1.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Perugia attack 0.80 / defence 0.68, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 21% | Draw 38% | Perugia 41%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Como win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 27%, Perugia 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.45 PPG, Perugia 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Perugia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.