Monza 2-1 Avellino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Avellino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Avellino at Brianteo in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Monza — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monza at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Avellino have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Avellino away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Monza have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Monza, 1 for Avellino and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2025, ended Monza 1–2 Avellino — a Avellino win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Avellino in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Avellino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 46% | Avellino 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.71 xG and Avellino 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.163 / defence 0.936 | Avellino attack 0.743 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.050. Avellino's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Monza's last 22 games and Avellino's last 22.
Result probabilities: Monza 60% | Draw 25% | Avellino 15%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.66 | Draw 4.00 | Avellino 6.73. The model has a clear lean to Monza (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Monza 50% (last 10 home games) | Avellino 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Brianteo • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 60% | Draw 25% | Avellino 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Monza 1.71 / Avellino 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.163 / def 0.936 | Avellino attack 0.743 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Monza (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Avellino xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Avellino FAQs
What time does Monza vs Avellino kick off?
Monza vs Avellino kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Brianteo.
What was the final score in Monza vs Avellino?
Monza 2 - 1 Avellino.
Where is Monza vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Brianteo.
What competition is Monza vs Avellino part of?
Monza vs Avellino is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 60% chance of winning, Avellino a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Monza and Avellino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Monza vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Avellino's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Avellino's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 22 games and Avellino's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.00
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Monza xG
Total xG
2.44
0.73
Avellino xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
3%
37.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Avellino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Monza and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Monza and 0.73 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Avellino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza come into this having played 22 games, going 13W 5D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Avellino sit at 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Avellino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Monza's home form reads 8W 2D 1L across their last 11 home games, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Avellino have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 11 away games (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.23 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Avellino
Blended
Monza (Home) vs Avellino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Monza vs Avellino Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Avellino in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 games (2.00 PPG), while Avellino have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Avellino away?
Monza's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.36 PPG; Avellino away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Monza or Avellino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Avellino in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Monza
0
Draws
1
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Avellino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Avellino?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 1, Avellino have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Avellino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Monza 2-1 Avellino.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 46%, Avellino 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Monza) and 27% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Avellino in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Avellino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Avellino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Monza's recent matches and 46% of Avellino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monza and Avellino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Monza's recent games and 27% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Avellino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Monza's recent matches and 73% of Avellino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Avellino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Avellino 2-1 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.71 xG and Avellino 0.73 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Avellino attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 60% | Draw 25% | Avellino 15%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 46%, Avellino 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Avellino's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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